General Elections 2019 have arrived before mangoes this summer . Development has taken a backseat,as Jingoism and Hindu nationalism on one hand,and pure cynicism married with promises of moon voyages on the other are in contest with each other.
Muslim voters seem more aware of what is at stake this time around,even as Dalit unity seems to be in disarray,despite many provocations .
Ram Temple could not be be constructed ,even by a Hindu majority government.Pulwama and Balakot have resulted in a stalemate in which new normal is not yet defined. OBC subcategorisation has not been resorted to.ECB quotas have been doled out.PM-Kisan is up and running,even as NYAY has been promised. Reservation in promotions and in the private sector have not been announced. Dawood still lives,so do Hafiz Sayeed and Masood Azhar. Doklam still dogs us.There is no love lost between the BJP top duo and the leaders of opposition.
Here I predict the final scenario in various states.(I am no betting man ,or a psephologist.All these are mere guesstimates)-
1.BIHAR- NDA 29 (Bjp 14,JDU 12,LJP 3) ,UPA 11(Cong 3,RJD 7,HAM 1)
Despite the fact that the ‘betrayal’ as well as prohibition have made a dent in Nitish’s personal credibility,and that Modi wave is not visible as it was in 2014,NDA is in good position because the UPA seems in total disarray. Pulwama has not harmed NDA cause either.
Laluless opposition looks orphaned.UPA has left far too many seats for RLSP and HAM (total 11).Tej Pratap is hell bent on creating nuisance.
NDA seems quite a stable alliance,barring some noise created by Giriraj Singh,who should win despite all the hype being created around Kanhaiya Kumar. Tanweer Hasan of RJD should finish second.
Ravishankar Prasad should also beat Shotgun by over a lakh votes in Patna Sahib.
2.Jharkhand 14- NDA 7,UPA 7 (Cong 3,JMM 3,JVP 1)
BJP didn’t exactly sweep Jharkhand Assembly polls ,although they had won 12 seats in the last GE. Congress and JMM are on an upsurge ,and JVP of Babulal Marandi is still a force.RJD has broken free of UPA and that might hurt in a couple of seats.
The last three bye elections have been won by JMM (2) and Congress.This doesn’t augur well for the BJP.If not managed properly ,this state might also head Chhatisgarh’s way.
But for now,Modi magic and Nationalism might save them the blushes,especially in urban centres.
- ANDHRA 25- NDA 0, Cong 1 , TDP 8,YSRC 16
What is that drives YSRC ? Dalit Christians and Reddy votes,as well as demand for a Special Status .As such, it cannot afford to have a pre-poll alliance with the BJP.Similarly,owing to the taint of corruption,BJP would not like to go with Jagan Mohan,and is anyway a villain in the state in these GE.
But JMR seems to be in the driving seat,and that explains for TDP’s nervousness. Naidu didn’t ally with the Congress because the latter is held responsible for the breakup of Andhra.
Naidu has never won Assembly or Lok Sabha elections in Andhra without BJP support (both in 1999 and 2014).Last time also,there was not much difference between the vote pc of YSRC and TDP,but BJP helped him tide it over.This ,as well as anti-incumbency of five years ,as well as double standards vis-à-vis NDA shall cost TDP dear.(maybe dearer)
4.Tamil Nadu 39- NDA 9,UPA 30 (Cong 7 ,DMK 20,Others 3 )
Rajnikant has proved to be a washed out rag of a politician.What is he trying to do is anyone’s guess.He has backed Modi,but whether he is at all relevant is anyone’s guess.
Kamal Hassan’s party shall be contesting alone as well,and shall get a zero.
No one can say anything about TTV Dinakaran as of now.But what seems clear is the decline of AIADMK in the post Amma era. TTVD might make a big dent in AIADMK vote. Common sense dictates that Palaniswamy and Paneerselvam shall get a huge drubbing. But they have managed to lure PMK and DMDK.This might save them blushes.
What is also clear is that Stalin is thick with Rahul. Their alliance should sweep TN by default.
But conventional logic never works in TN,and this is an election in which neither Amma nor Kalaignar shall feature.Hence,the confusion !
5.Karnataka 28- NDA 16,UPA 12 ( Cong 10,JDS 2)
Despite constant murmers of all being not well in the alliance,it is in JDS and Congress’s paramout interest that the government keeps functioning,and hence it will.Modi might propel BJP to 16 seats,but this is a rather optimistic scenario for the BJP.
What might help BJP a bit is friction between the allies,as well as inability of JDS to find candidates to field in the LOk Sabha seats it bargained for itself.
6.Maharashtra 48- BJP 20,Shiv Sena 15,UPA 13 (congress 8,NCP 4,Raju Shetty 1)
Uddhav has eaten humble pie and allied with BJP.Nationalism must be a big draw in Maharashtra.BJP state govt has not been disasterous.There has been a lot of exodus from NCP and Congress to BJP recently.
The alliance seems to be working.Uddhav was present when Amit Shah filed his nomination from Gandhinagar.NDA should win handsomely in the state.
Prakash Ambedkar and MIM’s alliance can end up harming UPA by dividing Dalit-Muslim votes.
7.Uttar Pradesh 80- NDA 50,Cong 2, MGB 28 (SP 15,BSP 12 ,RLD 1 )
There is Priyanka who can harm UPA’s prospects in some seats by confusing the Muslims.It seems unlikely that upper caste would be much swayed by her beyond the traditional Congress vote of 7-8 pc.
Then there is Chandrashekhar Azad who seems hell bent on splitting Dalit vote in many places.
Mayawati is nervous about the effect these two can have on the final outcome.
Shivpal Yadav seems like a spent force.OP Rajbhar ,an ally of BJP,seems mollified for now.Apna Dal of Kurmis is still a part of NDA.Praveen Nishad of Nishad Party has joined BJP,and might help in non-yadav vote consolidation.
Despite news reports,Congress should retain both Amethi and R Barelli.But no other seats seems forthcoming.
Jats have still not forgiven SP or Muslims.They might prop up Ajit Singh,but in other seats are expected to vote for BJP,despite the travails of cane farmers.
It remains to be seen how effectively do Yadav votes get transferred to BSP,and how well does BSP manage to attract non-Jatav Dalit votes. Muslim vote division is also a concern for MGB.
8.North-East 11 seats-NDA 6,UPA 2,MNF 1,SDF 1,NPP 1
BJP can be expected to win both seats in Arunachal and Tripura .But there are cracks in NEDA (NDA plus likeminded parties) owing to Citizenship (Amendment) Bill.Some friendly fights might end up hurting NDA.
9.Assam 14- NDA 7,UPA 7 (cong 6 ,AUDF 1)
Citizenship (Amendment) Bill can spoil BJP’s game in Assam.AGP is not in favour of granting citizenship to Bangladeshi Hindus,and had quite,but later rejoined NDA .This confusion has the potential to destroy all of Sonowal’s good work in Assam. Himanta was set to contest from Tezpur,but was directed to focus on all seats instead.
Situation remains fluid on ground.
10.Telangana 17- NDA 0,Cong 1,TRS 15,AIMIM 1
One seat for Owaisi,and rest all but one for KCR seems like a done deal.One seats for Cong seems like one seat too many.
- West Bengal 42- NDA 10,TMC 30,Cong 1,Left 1
Make no mistake,BJP has gained a lot of ground in the last 5 years. That said ,they might lose their Darjeeling seat this time.
Even Asansol is not a done deal. But Babul Supriyo must prevail over Moon Moon Sen.
If they manage about 30 pc of the total vote,they might get a dozen seats. With both the Congress and the Left completely decimated and yet fighting elections separately, it is difficult to estimate how much damage they can inflict upon the TMC.
Ten is an optimistic number.It seems BJP does need a final push which can be given only by the PM himself.
12.Odisha 21- BJP 8,BJD 13
There is something happening in Odisha .It might not result in a BJP sweep,or a major win,but BJD is rattled this time around.
If Congress collapses,BJD shall gain.If it stays in the fight,even token one at that,we can expect a BJP surge.
13.Kerala 20-NDA 0,UPA 14,Left 6
Sorry BJP,Sabrimala would give you 20 pc vote share,but wont give u a seat.
At best ,the BJP would make a dent in the Leftist vote.Congress traditionally polls the vote of minorities in Kerala and Left rakes in more of the Hindu vote.This transfer of some Hindu vote from Left to the BJP translates into advantage Congress.The Wayanad decision of Rahul shall also help the Congress in gaining ground.
14.Goa 2-NDA 2,UPA 0
Manohar Parrikar shall be missed.But Pradeep Sawant is a good bet.Sympathy and Modi should see them through.
15.Gujarat 26- BJP 24,Cong 2
Do not forget this the home state of Namo,and there is no way Congress gonna snatch more than 2 seats from him in the GE.Cong has been plagued by infighting and exodus to BJP.
16.Chhatisgarh 11- BJP 3,Cong 8
Small margins become consolidated once governments change .Chhatisgarh was decisive in rejecting the BJP.I don’t think BJP can win more than 3 seats out of 11.
17.MP 29-BJP 20,Cong 9
Shivraj is still popular .Modi is still a force.BJP lost to itself and to the upper caste voters ,and because of the voters’ fatigue. This Hindutva state would still see a loss for BJP but not by more than 6-7 seats.
18.Rajasthan 25- BJP 15,congress 10
Modi gonna win atleast this much.Congress would be on a honeymoon ,but still modi magic gonna win BJP 15 seats.They could have win a bit more,but poor selection of candidates gonna cost them dear.
19.Delhi 7- BJP 7,cong 0,AAP 0
Even if Congress and AAP ally which they shud ,they cant win more than a seat apiece in Delhi.
AAP is finished in Punjab as well,and might not win even a single seat.Infact it is very likely that AAP might not win a single seat in GE 2019 even in alliance with Congress in Delhi.
20.Haryana 10-NDA 7 ,Cong 2 ,AAP-Dushyant 1
Inld has exploded .Jats might rally behind the Congress wholly.Bjp wud be backing on the non-Jat support.AAP might help Dushyant retain his seat,else this is gonna be BJP sweep.
Thus if we see from the national perspective,
1.NDA is winning 275 seats –BJP 231,rest 44 .
2.UPA is winning 146 seats- Cong 97.
Despite BJP falling short of majority, there is no way a non-BJP,non-Modi govt can be formed at the Centre.
3.Federal ,unallied parties gonna win big numbers.
TMC should emerge as the third largest party with 30 seats.
BJD with 13,and TRS with 15 might gravitate towards NDA eventually. Same might be the case with YSRC.
Verdict seems clear- NaMo is coming back,with fifty less seats than last time.