General Elections 2019 are upon us. A lot is at stake,and some situation might still change on ground.But, I guess, barring some decision on the Ram Temple,subcategorisation of OBCs in either UP or at the Central level,reservation in private sector for the SC-STs,war with Pakistan or China,killing or deportation of Dawood or Hafeez Sayeed or another demonetisation drive or some other gamechanger ,broad parameters and basic numbers that I discuss shall stand.
1.BIHAR- NDA 22 (Bjp 11,JDU 9,LJP 2) ,UPA 18(Cong 5,RJD 13)
The switch has hurt Nitish’s credibility,and it seems his grip on law and order has also weakened.I fear Prohibition also gonna affect him adversely.Modi wave was very potent in 2014.I don’t think it wud be as strong a force now. Lalu being in jail might also engender some sympathy for Tejaswi.
Paswan has already sensed that situation is not quite conducive.Why else is he taking the Rajya Sabha route ?
Shatrughan Sinha and RK Singh have also been consistent critics and have dented the image of Teflon Modi to an extent.
BJP fighting on only 17 seats despite holding 22 currently will also generate negative sentiment against the party,although there is no other decision that the party could have taken.
2.Jharkhand 14- NDA 7,UPA 7 (Cong 3,JMM 3,JVP 1)
BJP didn’t exactly sweep Jharkhand Assembly polls either,although they had won 12 seats in the last GE. Congress and JMM are on an upsurge ,and JVP of Babulal Marandi is still a force.
The last three bye elections have been won by JMM (2) and Congress.This doesn’t augur well for the BJP.If not managed properly ,this state might also head the Chhatisgarh way.
3. ANDHRA 25- NDA 0, UPA 10 (Cong 2 plus TDP 8),YSRC 15
What is that drives YSRC ? Dalit Christian and Reddy votes.As such it cannot afford to have a pre-poll alliance with the BJP.Similarly,owing to the taint of corruption,BJP would not like to go with Jagan Mohan.
But JMR seems to be in the driving seat,and that explains for TDP’s nervousness. Now Naidu is sitting in Congress’ lap,but can he actually go ahead and ally with the party seen responsible for breakup of Andhra ?
In all probability,he would. Despite that,there is no guarantee of vote transfer.BJP is expected to get nothing in this tripartite struggle.
4.Tamil Nadu 39- NDA 5,UPA 32 (Cong 5 ,DMK 27),Others 2
A lot is yet to become clear in Tamil Nadu. But some of these epectations have already come cropper.
Rajnikant has proved to be a washed out rag of a politician.What is he trying to do is anyone’s guess.He talks about spiritual politics and principled stands ,and whether he intends to actually fight elections is anyone’s guess.Atleast for 2019,he is not a player at all.
Kamal Hassan has done some work.But how effective is he ? What is he looking for ? He might ally with the Congress and DMK and win a seat or two perhaps.But he doesn’t seem like a gamechanger in 2019.
No one can say anything about TTV Dinakaran as of now.But what seems clear is the decline of AIADMK in the post Amma era.What is also clear is that Stalin is thick with Rahul.
Thus BJP is saddled with AIADMK,and DMK-Congress is a done deal. With Modi wave on the wane,there is only way this election can head.
But what about other small parties-PMK,MDMK,PT ?
5.Karnataka 28- NDA 14,UPA 14 ( Cong 10,JDS 4)
Despite constant murmers of all being not well in the alliance,it is in JDS and Congress’s paramout interest that the government keeps functioning,and hence it will.Modi might propel BJP to 14 seats,but this is a rather optimistic scenario for the BJP.Goes without saying that the alliance shall hold.
6.Maharashtra 48- BJP 8,Shiv Sena 2,UPA 38 (congress 22,NCP 16)
Mark my words- Sena is out to spoil NaMo’s game.Uddhav doesn’t mind getting decimated himself,but he cant stand Modi.It is Gadkari who ascends in the post Namo scenario,and he might be more amenable to the Sena’s interests in the Assembly polls. It must rile Shiv Sena daily to see a BJP CM in Maharashtra,and this is all due to NaMO.
Since Congress and NCP are set to ally with each other,and some RPI factions and PWP might also join them As such Maharashtra seems set to give a big jolt to BJP.
7.Uttar Pradesh 80- NDA 23,UPA 2, MGB 55 (SP 27,BSP 25,RLD 3)
It seems fairly certain that Congress would not be a part of the MGB now.BSP doesn’t want them because of their attitude,and for the simple fact that their votes are non-transferable.This leaves the Congress out in cold.They will have to beg for two seats-Amethi and Rae Barelli.But that said,they would definitely eat up 8-10 pc votes and these might turn out to be crucial in the final outcome.
A Yadav-Muslim-Jat-Jatav consolidation can be expected to sweep the polls.But BSP might not get very high percentage of Muslim votes which might gravitate towards Congress.It is also doubtful if SP votes might get transferred to BSP in bulk.
In any event,BJP’s best tally cant get past 23/80 .
MGB with 55 seats must emerge as the kingmaker.
8.NORTH-East 11 seats-NDA 7,UPA 2,MNF 1,SDF 1
BJP can be expected to win both seats in Arunachal and Tripura since Biplav Dev and Pema Khandu have been solid in their governance.
9.Assam 14- NDA 7,UPA 7 (cong 6 ,AUDF 1)
Citizenship (Amendment) Bill can spoil BJP’s game in Assam.AGP is not in favour of granting citizenship to Bangladeshi Hindus.This confusion has the potential to destroy all of Sonowal’s good work in Assam.
10.Telangana 17- NDA 0,UPA 0,TRS 16,AIMIM 1
One seat for Owaisi,and rest all for KCR seems like a done deal.KCR might go onto play a national role going ahead.
11. West Bengal 42- NDA 1,TMC 39,Cong 1,Left 1
Make no mistake,BJP has gained a lot of ground in the last 5 years. That said ,they are set to lose their Darjeeling seat this time.Even Asansol is not a done deal.If Babul Supriyo goes down,BJP might not be able to open their account.They will get 32-36 pc of the total vote,but with both the Congress and the Left completely decimated ,there is no way BJP can convert its votes into actual number of seats.
As such this gonna be Advantage Mamata.She is set to win a minimum of 39 seats in the GE and emerge as a key player in National Politics.
12.Odisha 21- NDA 1,BJD 20
I am amused by many surveys being telecast on TV which declare that the BJP might go on to win 7-9 seats in WB and 10 + in Odisha.This seems like pure hogwash.
Naveen Patnaik is at the height of his popularity in Odisha.BJP has no plan ,nor any leader to take him on .There is no way how BJP can win more than a single seat in GE.It is Advantage Naveen ,esp as the Assemby polls shall be held along with the GE.
13.Kerala 20-NDA 0,UPA 15,Left 5
Sorry BJP,Sabrimala would give you 20 pc vote share,but wont give u a seat.
At best ,the BJP would make a dent in the Leftist vote.Congress traditionally polls the vote of minorities in Kerala and Left rakes in more of Hindu vote.This transfer of some Hindu vote from Left to the BJP translates into advantage BJP.
14.Goa 2-NDA 0,UPA 2
Parrikar Saheb might be acting very heroically but governance has collapsed in Goa,and this callousness gonna cost BJP big time .
15.Gujarat 26- BJP 21,Cong 5
Do not forget this the home state of Namo,and there is no way Congress gonna snatch more than 5 seats from him in the GE.
16.Chhatisgarh 11- BJP 3,Cong 8
Small margins become consolidated once governments change .Chhatisgarh was decisive in rejecting the BJP.I don’t think BJP can win more than 3 seats out of 11.
17.MP 29-BJP 20,Cong 9
Shivraj is still popular .Modi is still a force.BJP lost to itself and to the upper caste voters ,and because of the voters’ fatigue. This Hindutva state would still see a loss for BJP but not by more than 6-7 seats.
18.Rajasthan 25- BJP 15,congress 10
Modi gonna win atleast this much.Congress would be on a honeymoon ,but still modi magic gonna win BJP 15 seats.
19.New Delhi 7- BJP 7,cong 0,AAP 0
If Congress and AAP don’t ally (which they cant) ,they stand no chance against Modi.Even if they do,I dunt think they can win more than 2,which is the best they can manage with tactical understanding.
AAP is finished in Punjab as well,and might not win even a single seat.Infact it is very likely that AAP might not win a single seat in GE 2019.
20.Haryana 10-NDA 5,Cong 4,AAP-Dushyant 1
Inld has exploded.Jats might rally behind the congress wholly.Bjp wud be backing on the non-Jat support.AAP might help Dushyant retain his seat,else it is gonna be evens stevens for BJP & congress ,despite Khattar’s unpopularity.
Thus if we see from the national perspective,
1.NDA is winning 177 seats –BJP 159,rest 18.With Shiv Sena out of NDA,and Akalis not winning more than 2 seats,only JDU is expected to win about 9 seats.Else NDA is virtually dead.
2.UPA is winning 205 seats.
Congress might jump to 128,and it’s the allies like DMK might win 27 seats,TDP 8,NCP 16,RJD 13 and JDS 6 seats. This is a return of the coalition era.
Despite BJP being the single largest party,UPA would easily be the largest prepoll alliance. There is no way Modi can form a govt at 159 .
3.Federal ,unallied parties gonna win big. numbers.
TMC should emerge as the third largest party with 39 seats.
BJD with 20,and TRS with 16,along with TMC shall command 75 seats,and huge bargaining power.Together they can make or break any government,but they might not remain together given Mamata’s acerbic style,and KCR’s overambitious streak.
If we add MGB’s 55 seats to the tally,together they have the support of 130 Lok Sabha MPs.
It is a bit tough to digest that RaGa with 128 MPs would like to lead the Central Government. But it is also very naïve to assume that Congress shall support any small party like TMC or SP to lead the formation.
In this event,Manmohan Singh might find himself at the helm once again.I would not die of shock if this happens.
With 205 seats ,UPA can easily attract support of MGB (55 seats) and TMC ,and cross the 300 mark,without requiring any support from TRS or YSRC or even BJD.Thus a UPA-congress led govt seems likely,but led by MMS,and not by RaGa.
4.The reason why TRS and BJD ,and even YSRC might gravitate towards NDA even before the elections is because of the FoMo (fear of missing out). UPA might not require these parties’ support post-poll and hence such flurry of prepoll activity . Its insecurity that is driving TRS and TDP,but same is not the case with TMC or DMK.
5.Support of the MGB and Mamata,along with UPA constituents like DMK,NCP,JDS and RJD would be enough for the Congress to form the government.
6. BJP and Congress wud win about 50 pc or more seats -287 per this table.
As such all regional parties,even if they unite,cannot form the government without some kind of support from congress or BJP.
DMk (27),MGB (55),TMC (39),TRS(16),BJD (20),TDP (08),NCP (16),RJD (13),JDS (6) together account for 200 seats only. Hence any United Front type of government doesn’t seem possible.
7.Can we have a BJP supported UF like Government ?
I don’t think BJP would be interested in any such formation.Even otherwise,such a formation can only include BJP 20 and TRS 16,and wud not reach anywhere close to the 272 mark.
I think India can have no other PM in june 2019,except Manmohan Singh,going by these calculations.
ALso do not get fooled that these elections shall be lost or won on any issues related to famers,jobs,infrastructure,cow or Ram.IT is caste arithmetic and alliance chemistry that shall seal the deal,and hence it is shocking as to why the BJP has shown such arrogance towards its allies,both previous and potential ones.ALso why did not BJP show any inclination to use the Caste Census data of 2011 is also beyond my basic understanding .